S&P500 Daily Action Areas & Price Targets 19/8/26

***QUOTING ES1! FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***

SPX PUT/CALL RATIO 1.28 (The numbers reflect options traded during the current session.) A put-call ratio below 0.7 is generally considered bullish, and a put-call ratio above 1.0 is generally considered bearish.

GS Flow Desk: large S&P 31Aug 7000/7950 strangle in roughly $20mm vega / $115mm premium …My Read – classic “big convexity versus carry” trade: either someone paid a lot to own a wide August move, or someone got paid a lot to bet that the S&P stays comfortably inside the 7000–7950 corridor

JHEQX Q3 Collar Short Call Cap: ~7,750 – 7,900 - Long Put Strike: ~7,050 – 7,100 (approx. 5% downside protection) Short Put Strike: ~5,950

DEC2025 OPEX to DEC2026 OPEX is 945 points giving us a range of [5889,7779]

WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7660/50

WEEKLY RANGE RES 7890 SUP 7720

MONTHLY RANGE RES 7838 SUP 7258

DAILY VWAP BEARISH 7772

WEEKLY VWAP BULLISH 7618

MONTHLY VWAP BULLISH 7503

DAILY STRUCTURE - OTFL - 7735

WEEKLY STRUCTURE - TBC

MONTHLY STRUCTURE - OTFH - 7345.75

Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favouring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.

One-Time Framing Higher (OTFH): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signalling a strong and consistent upward movement.

One-Time Framing Lower (OTFL): This describes a market trend where each successive bar forms a lower high, indicating a pronounced and steady downward movement.

DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 7735/45

GAP FILL 7766.25

GAMMA FLIP 7731

DELTA FLIP 7797

DAILY RANGE RES 7780 SUP 7645

2 SIGMA RES 7849 SUP 7577

VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 17.9  (VVIX / VIX) 6.18

TRADES & TARGETS 

SHORT ON REJECT/RECLAIM DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE

LONG ON ACCEPTANCE ABOVE DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET GAP FILL/DAILY RANGE RES

LONG ON REJECT/RECLAIM OF WEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE

***ADDITIONAL SETUPS & TARGETS HIGHLIGHTED ON THE CHARTS***

(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE ABOVE OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)

US Close — Momentum / AI Pullback, Not Yet a Structural De-Risking

US equities closed lower with Tech underperforming:

The headline read is simple:

This was a momentum / AI reversal in a low-volume, low-catalyst tape — not yet evidence of a deeper structural de-risking.

The market narrative tried to pin the pullback on higher long-end yields, AI debt concerns, and Anthropic ARR disappointment, but the desk read is more benign: slow summer week, light flows, post-earnings digestion, and catalyst vacuum until NVDA / Jackson Hole.

1. Price Action: Tech Led the Decline

The decline was concentrated in momentum and AI exposure:

• memory

• semis

• big Tech

• AI momentum longs

This was a reversal of the prior session, when AI / semis / memory outperformed while software and rate-sensitive baskets lagged.

Today, the pressure moved back into:

• semis

• memory

• momentum longs

• big Tech

• gold equities in Europe

The broader market also weakened, with RTY down 1.3%, showing that higher yields / weaker housing data / risk-off sentiment did pressure cyclicals and small caps too.

2. The Desk View: Low-Volume Momentum Reversal, Not Breakdown

JPM Market Intel’s interpretation is important:

Today looked more like a low-volume, low-catalyst, post-earnings-induced pullback than the start of something more structural.

Brian Heavey’s flow read:

• flows were not busy

• activity was 3/10 at best

• some semis de-risking in pockets

• not a lot of broad forced selling

That matters. If this were a genuine de-risking event, you would expect:

• heavy volumes

• broad hedge-fund selling

• high index protection demand

• larger VIX impulse

• systematic deleveraging

• credit stress

Instead, VIX only rose to 15.84, which remains contained.

3. Momentum Selloff: Anthropic ARR Disappointment as the “What Changed?” Catalyst

The market is pointing to Anthropic’s reported update-call ARR number as the day’s narrative trigger.

Reported:

• Anthropic told investors “only US$65bn” ARR

• various data sources had implied US$75–80bn

The caveat is important:

There is little clarity on how the number is calculated.

But in a slow summer week with few major catalysts, the market latched onto it.

Why it matters:

• Anthropic has become a key validation point for AI monetization

• hyperscaler capex / data-center ROIC arguments depend partly on AI revenue scaling

• lower-than-hoped ARR numbers can raise questions about demand timing

• AI infrastructure stocks had rallied hard from July lows

So the chain reaction was:

Lower-than-hoped Anthropic ARR→AI Monetization Questions→Momentum / Semis PullbackLower-than-hoped Anthropic ARR→AI Monetization Questions→Momentum / Semis Pullback

But this is not enough by itself to break the AI capex cycle.

4. Semis Still Well Above July Lows

The note highlights that SOXX remains roughly:

• 18% above the July low

That is important context.

Today’s selloff comes after a large rebound.

So the move looks more like:

Sharp Rebound→Range-Bound Reversal→Await NVDA / Jackson HoleSharp Rebound→Range-Bound Reversal→Await NVDA / Jackson Hole

rather than:

New Bearish TrendNew Bearish Trend

This supports the dip-buying framework if fundamentals remain intact.

5. No Major Catalyst Until NVDA and Jackson Hole

The market may stay choppy and range-bound until:

• NVDA earnings: August 26

• Jackson Hole: August 27–29

These are the two major narrative reset events.

NVDA

Key for:

• AI demand

• hyperscaler capex

• GPU backlog

• networking / memory / photonics read-through

• vendor financing perception

• China exposure

• gross margins

• supply chain confidence

Jackson Hole

Key for:

• Fed reaction function

• Warsh / FOMC thinking

• neutral rate debate

• long-end yields

• financial conditions

• inflation tolerance

• September hike pricing

Until then, the market may remain one headline away from:

AI PositiveAI Positive

or:

AI ConcernAI Concern

especially in low-volume conditions.

6. Positioning Still Neutral

Aggregate positioning remains:

• around 40th percentile

• -0.2z

That is not stretched.

This is one reason JPM remains tactically bullish.

If positioning were at 90th percentile and AI momentum rolled over, the risk would be more serious.

But neutral positioning means there is room for:

• buybacks

• retail flows

• systematic re-levering

• hedge-fund re-grossing

• dip buying

to support the market.

7. Rates: Long-End Pressure Still Matters

Even though the desk does not view rates as the only driver of today’s pullback, long-end yields remain a genuine risk.

US 10Y:

• 4.702%

News headlines focused on:

• US 10Y yields climbing to highest since 2025

• long-term borrowing costs at highest in decades

• bond rout continuing

Jay Barry’s rates comment points to global factors:

• JGB curve bearishly steepened by 7bps

• global long-end rates sold off

• USTs moved higher in sympathy into New York

This is consistent with the broader theme:

The long end is being pressured by global duration supply, fiscal concerns, AI financing needs, and real-yield repricing — not just Fed hike expectations.

That remains the biggest macro risk to the equity bull case.

8. Housing Data Weak

Macro data were mixed / soft on housing:

• July Housing Starts missed

• Building Permits surprised higher

• Pending Home Sales fell to weakest since January

This fits the pressure in:

• housing-linked equities

• retail

• small caps

• rate-sensitive baskets

Higher long-end yields are becoming more visible in the housing channel.

That matters for retail earnings, especially HD / LOW.

9. Oil Still Elevated on US/Iran Risk

WTI closed around:

• US$85.10

US/Iran uncertainty lingered.

The Middle East narrative remains:

• no clean near-term off-ramp

• continued ship attacks in Strait of Hormuz

• no talks / negotiations planned

• Iran says Hormuz remains shut until interim-deal conditions met

Oil did not surge like the prior session, but it stayed elevated.

That keeps inflation risk alive and complicates Fed pricing.

10. Gold and Silver Pull Back

Gold fell:

• -1.69% to US$4,341

Silver fell:

• -3.50% to US$63.49

This looks like profit-taking / position digestion after a strong move, especially with long-end yields still elevated.

The structural gold thesis remains intact, but near-term it remains sensitive to:

• real yields

• USD

• positioning

• oil/geopolitical hedging demand

• central-bank buying

• ETF flows

Gold remains a good hedge for fiscal / geopolitical / reserve-diversification risk, but it can still sell off when real yields rise.

11. Europe / UK: Fifth Consecutive Decline

European equities were weaker:

SXXP fell for the fifth consecutive day, the longest losing streak since November 2026, amid low trading volume.

Worst themes:

• semis

• momentum longs

• gold equities

Italy lagged.

UK unemployment surprised higher:

• 4.9%

• versus 4.8% survey

• prior 4.9%

Europe’s earnings backdrop remains resilient, but the equity tape is more vulnerable to:

• higher energy

• stronger USD

• global momentum reversal

• lower liquidity

• China softness

• rates pressure

This fits the monetization menu idea that Europe can become a tactical funding short if US Tech / software catches a durable bid.

12. Day 1 Retail Earnings: Home Depot

HD takeaways from Chris Horvers:

• modest green shoots in share gains / better housing

• reasons to believe topline trends could accelerate from here

• improving East / West Coast trends

• annualizing storm headwind

• SRS becoming a larger 2H contributor

2027 EPS estimate:

• JPM: US$16.54

• Street: US$16.08

Price target:

• US$398

• based on 24x P/E

Near-term view:

HD stock could continue moving higher as 2026 estimates are validated and the Street’s 2027 comp assumption of 2.9% becomes possible, though likely not beatable without lower rates.

This is a constructive read, but lower rates remain important for a more durable housing-linked upcycle.

13. Tomorrow’s Retail Earnings: LOW, TJX, TGT

LOW

Positioning: 3/10

• HFs short

• miss and cut expected

• LOs underweight

• sluggish housing fundamentals

Key question:

Is a cut viewed as de-risking 2H?

Bogeys:

• Q2 comps -1%

• Street +0.5%

• reduce FY guide to low end:

  • comps 0% to +2%

  • EPS US$12.25–12.75

TJX

Positioning: 5/10

• lighter than usual

• recent intra-quarter short

• low bar at Marmaxx

• expected beat at HomeGoods

• focus on exit rate and QTD

Bogeys:

• Marmaxx comps +2%

• HomeGoods comps +6–7%

• Q3 guide comps +2–3%

• flow-through Q2 beat to FY guide

TGT

Positioning: 7/10

• crowded hedge-fund long

• multiple near ceiling

• needs beat and raise

• recent outperformance invited some shorts, but setup remains demanding

Bogeys:

• Q2 comps around +3.5%

• margins / EPS beat

• raise EPS guide to US$9.00 midpoint

• raise sales guide to 4–5%

WMT Later This Week

Positioning: 4/10

• retail-dedicated investors more bearish since mid-July

• LOs content to react to print

• some covering into print

• focus on price investment and back-to-school

Buyside looking for:

• Q2 comps +3.0–3.5%

• Street +3.7%

• JPM +3.2%

• small EPS guide raise

• tariff refunds offset by price investments

• sales guide reiterated

14. Healthcare Desk Flow

Healthcare activity was concentrated in biotech.

OCUL

• active on EYPT data

• better for sale

• mix of long and short supply

HALO

• some covering

• name has received many post-earnings questions

RVMD

• better to buy

• strength may reflect approval potentially as early as next week

Managed Care

• active in MCOs

• two-way flow in UNH with long-only investors on both sides

• demand in ELV

This shows that outside Tech, there are still idiosyncratic pockets of activity, particularly in healthcare / biotech.

15. JPM Market Intel View: Tactical Bullish Maintained

Despite the momentum selloff, JPM maintains a Tactical Bullish view.

Reasons:

• markets are still climbing the wall of worry

• CPI / retail sales / auctions / Fedspeak were absorbed

• Fed Minutes and Flash PMIs are next

• NVDA and Jackson Hole can reset the narrative

• incremental equity buyers may emerge:

  • buybacks

  • retail

  • systematic players

  • hedge funds re-grossing / re-levering

The tactical bullish view is not invalidated by one low-volume momentum reversal.

16. Updated Monetization Menu

No week-over-week change to preferred trade expression.

The core positioning remains:

Favor

• Tech / Cyclicals barbell

• AI infrastructure

• broadening beneficiaries

• large-cap bias over SMid if growth data soften

• defined-risk upside structures

• dip-buying into AI / semis if fundamentals intact

Potential Funding Shorts

If Mag7 and / or Software catches a durable bid, next funding shorts:

• Brazil

• Europe

Rationale:

• less directly tied to AI upside

• more sensitive to oil / USD

This fits the current environment because oil remains elevated and USD / rates remain important macro variables.

17. What Would Change the Tactical Bullish View?

Today’s move does not yet change the view, but these would:

AI / Tech

• NVDA fails to validate demand / backlog / margins

• Anthropic / AI revenue data keep disappointing

• AI credit spreads widen materially

• hyperscaler capex guidance weakens

• semis break July-low recovery trend

Rates

• 10Y / 30Y continue to break higher

• Fed hike odds reprice materially above 50%

• real yields rise sharply

• JGB / UST global bear steepening accelerates

Oil / Geopolitics

• WTI breaks materially above current range

• Hormuz disruption escalates

• refined product spreads spike

Market Structure

• flows move from 3/10 to heavy selling

• VIX breaks meaningfully above 18–20

• breadth remains persistently weak

• systematic players turn sellers

• leveraged ETF deleveraging resumes