SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 16/10/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~60 POINTS***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6750/60
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6693 SUP 6411
OCT EOM STRADDLE 6602/6891
OCT MOPEX 6842/6487
DEC QOPEX 6303/7025
DAILY MARKET BALANCE – 6581/6806
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6720/10
DAILY RANGE RES 6772 SUP 6655
2 SIGMA RES 6828 SUP 6598
VIX DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 20.75
TRADES & TARGETS
LONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
SHORT ON TEST REJECT DAILY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. EQUITIES COLOR: RESILIENT
S&P gained +40bps, closing at 6,671, with a MOC imbalance of -$1.6b to SELL. NDX declined -68bps to 24,745, while R2K rose +97bps to 2,519, and the Dow slipped -4bps to 46,253. Trading volume reached 21.6 billion shares across all US equity exchanges, compared to the YTD daily average of 17.2 billion shares. VIX dropped -82bps to 20.64, WTI Crude fell -41bps to $58.46, US 10YR remained unchanged at 4.03%, gold surged +150bps to 4,226, DXY declined -35bps to 98.69, and Bitcoin dropped -137bps to $111,566.
The market exhibited similar price action to yesterday, with stocks generally higher, driven by short interest and a positive wave of earnings reports (Big Banks: BAC & MS; Luxury: LVMH; Tech: ASML). Improved Empire Manufacturing data also contributed, as all three components returned to expansionary territory after dipping into contraction in September. However, indices pulled back from morning highs following news that Bessent urged the World Bank to end support for China, Miran highlighted trade uncertainty from China's rare-earths move, and Waller commented on potential layoffs and reduced hiring due to AI. Despite these developments, consumer resilience remains evident after recent updates from major banks and consumer companies.
Today saw notable dispersion across sectors, with no uniform trend. Short baskets climbed +3-4%, and Non-Profitable Tech gained another +4%, now up 18% MTD, outperforming the S&P by 19% this month—on track for the largest monthly spread in over five years. Key pair trades underperformed, with MegaCap vs. NP Tech (GSPUMENP), HF VIP vs. Most Short (GSPRHVMS), and Software vs. Semis (GSPUSOSE) all down -3-4%. Regional Banks fell -2%, reflecting performance divergence between Big Banks and Regionals, with FHN and PNC earnings adding pressure. AFTER HOURS: ZION dropped -8% after announcing an $8k charge-off and a $60mn provision tied to legal actions against two borrowers with alleged loan/collateral irregularities (borrowers unnamed).
Activity levels on our floor were moderate, rated a 6 on a 1-10 scale, finishing ~flat versus the 30-day average of +94bps. LOs were net buyers at +$800m, driven by macro products, while HFs were net sellers at -$1b, primarily in macro expressions and tech. POST-BELL EPS reports included UAL, which rose +1% AH after reporting Q3 EPS of $2.78 (vs. $2.66 consensus) on in-line revenue of $15.2bn (vs. $15.28bn). UAL expects Q4 EPS of $3-3.5 (vs. $2.82 consensus), with a call tomorrow at 10:30am and a 6% implied move, likely benefiting from DAL’s elevated expectations. JBHT surged +10% AH on Q3 EPS of $1.76 (vs. $1.46 consensus) and slightly better revenue of $3.05bn (vs. $3.02bn). EBIT came in at $243mm (vs. $209mm consensus), with intermodal margins of 8.2% exceeding the 7-7.5% range. JBHT’s call is at 5pm, also with a 6% implied move.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!