Institutional Insights: Goldman Sachs SP500 Positioning & Key levels 25/11/25
Please refer below for a consolidated recap of the various GS Positioning metrics.
Summary:
1. CTA Corner:
CTAs sold - $33 billion of global equities last week (-$13 billion of US equities). Positioning is now in the 78th and 79th percentile across global and US equities, respectively. We have this cohort of sellers in every scenario over the next week.
2. GSPB:
The GSE equity fundamental L/S performance estimate fell -1.17% between 11/14 and 11/20 (vs MSCI World TR -3.19%), driven by a beta of -1.71%, partially offset by a positive alpha of +0.54% on the back of shorts. The GSE equity systematic L/S performance estimator rose +0.78% during the same period, driven by an alpha of +0.91% on the back of shorts, partially offset by a beta of -0.13% .
3. Buybacks:
We are in the peak of the open window, with companies actively stepping in with buyback orders amidst market/stock weaknesses. Generally, we observe a larger uptick in Q4 as companies look to meet their year-end buyback goals. We expect the current open window to run through 12/19/2025.
CTA Corner Flows:
Over the next 1 week:
- Flat tape: Sellers $38.34B ($13.26B out of the US)
- Up tape: Sellers $23.18B ($8.67B out of the US)
- Down tape: Sellers $69.94B ($25.13B out of the US)
Over the next 1 month:
- Flat tape: Sellers $53.78B ($19.37B out of the US)
- Up tape: Buyers $38.77B ($8.99B into the US)
- Down tape: Sellers $190.28B ($68.76B out of the US)
Key pivot levels for SPX:
- Short term: 6707
- Medium term: 6462
- Long term: 6029
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!