Daily Market Outlook, March 6, 2026
Daily Market Outlook, March 6, 2026
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Munnelly’s Macro Minute…
Global markets managed to find some footing overnight, as several Asian stock indices rebounded from early losses to end in positive territory. This followed a turbulent trading session for both European and U.S. markets. Despite an increasingly tense geopolitical environment—including a significant Iranian missile and drone attack on Thursday and a near-complete disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—key financial assets have shown a surprisingly subdued response. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note has remained steady around 4.14%, while Brent crude oil is holding its ground near $85 per barrel. Oil prices are caught in a tug-of-war, with regional conflict pushing prices higher even as the U.S. Treasury steps in to steady supply. A temporary waiver has been granted until April 4, allowing Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil currently stuck at sea, which could help ease supply concerns. In the precious metals market, gold has struggled to maintain upward momentum, hovering around $5,100 per ounce and continuing its recent trend of lower highs. Meanwhile, currency markets have been relatively quiet, with the U.S. dollar showing little movement. However, the Japanese yen has weakened notably against other major G10 currencies. This relative calm may not last long. U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has hinted that military strikes on Iran are likely to escalate significantly in the near future. Adding to market anxiety, critical U.S. employment and retail sales data are on the horizon, prompting many investors to adopt a more cautious stance. While geopolitical tremors in the Middle East have kept investors' eyes on the horizon, the focus shifts back to the data front as the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the February jobs report, a data point that could fundamentally reshape the narrative for the Federal Reserve. Economists are bracing for a potential slowdown. Following a robust January that saw 130,000 new positions, consensus estimates for February are far more conservative, with many projecting a modest gain of roughly 59,000 nonfarm payrolls. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.3%, though some analysts warn that annual population adjustments being introduced this month could push that figure toward 4.4%. The timing is particularly sensitive. With energy costs climbing and the 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 4.14%, the yield curve has reached its flattest point of the year. This tightening spread, combined with sticky inflation and cooling employment, has reignited the "stagflation" debate—a scenario of stagnant growth and rising prices that Fed officials are desperate to avoid. A resilient report would signal that the economy can still withstand higher-for-longer rates, but a significant miss would heighten fears that the labor market is finally losing its momentum under the weight of current policy and global instability.
With potential headline-grabbing developments looming over the weekend, risk-averse strategies are becoming increasingly popular. Even with Friday's bounce, the week’s market carnage has been nothing short of monumental. Asia’s leading stock index is on track for its sharpest weekly decline since the chaos of the 2020 pandemic, plunging 6.3% in the wake of the escalating Iran crisis. This upheaval has sparked the fastest exodus of capital from the region in four years, solidifying the U.S. dollar’s reputation as the ultimate safe haven and positioning it for its strongest weekly performance since late 2024. South Korea’s Kospi took center stage in this week’s rollercoaster ride, enduring its most dramatic single-day slump in history on Wednesday before rebounding in spectacular fashion. Though the index dipped 1.1% on Friday, it remarkably still ranks as the world’s second-best performing market this year. Investors appear steadfast in their enthusiasm for AI-related stocks, even as they navigate one of the most volatile geopolitical backdrops in recent memory.
Domestically the UK The February Decision Makers Panel offered little to shift the UK inflation narrative, with realized 3-month price growth holding steady at 3.7%. While year-ahead inflation expectations edged down to 3.4%, the move was largely anticipated and offset by persistent wage stickiness; expected pay remains stalled at 3.6%, a level likely to keep Bank of England hawks on high alert. However, a deteriorating labor market suggests these wage concerns may be overblown. Employment contracted again in February, continuing a weakening month-on-month trend. While the 3-month employment rate optically improved to -0.2%, this was merely a base effect as a poor November print exited the data. With hiring expectations sitting well below historical averages and geopolitical uncertainty weighing on sentiment, unemployment appears headed for a continued upward trend rather than a recovery.
Overnight Headlines
Trump Says He Must Be Involved In Picking Iran's Next Leader
US Says 'Firepower Over Iran To Surge Dramatically'
US House Rejects War Critics’ Bid to Halt Strikes on Iran
Trump Sued By States Over New Tariffs After Supreme Court Loss
Fed’s Bowman Sees More Signs US Labor Market Stabilizing
US Issues License To Allow Some Russian Oil Sales To India
US Weighs Oil Futures Market Action To Combat Price Spikes, WH Says
US Has A Big Ask For China: Buy Less Oil From Russia, More From US
Bahrain Says Iranian Missile Hit State-Run Oil Refinery
US Mulls New Rules For AI Chip Exports, Incl. Requiring US Investments
Costco Reports Higher-Than-Expected Profit Amid Rising Sales
Marvell Raises Sales View As AI Developers Spend On Data Centers
SoftBank Seeks Record Loan Of Up To $40 Billion For OpenAI Stake
Howard Lutnick, Intel CEO Sued Over Firm’s Sale of 10% to US
Oracle Plans Thousands Of Job Cuts In Face of AI Cash Crunch
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)
EUR/USD: 1.1600 (EU1.5b), 1.1700 (EU1.46b), 1.1500 (EU1.39b)
USD/JPY: 153.25 ($1.27b), 156.40 ($869.2m), 154.05 ($705m)
AUD/USD: 0.7050 (AUD687.2m), 0.7100 (AUD629.6m), 0.7040 (AUD621.6m)
USD/CNY: 6.8500 ($880.4m), 6.9100 ($802.6m), 6.8800 ($750m)
USD/CAD: 1.3600 ($2.08b), 1.3670 ($519.4m), 1.3650 ($399.2m)
GBP/USD: 1.3425 (GBP620.2m), 1.2900 (GBP477.8m), 1.3000 (GBP466.3m)
USD/MXN: 23.50 ($680m), 17.60 ($463m)
USD/BRL: 5.2600 ($337.9m), 5.3900 ($333.8m)
USD/KRW: 1430.00 ($655m), 1510.00 ($645.4m), 1405.00 ($610m)
EUR/GBP : 0.8750 (EU603.4m), 0.8700 (EU316.9m)
NZD/USD: 0.6000 (NZD322m)
CFTC Positions as of February 27, 2026:
- S&P 500 CME net short: +14,318 contracts (465,965 total)
- S&P 500 CME net long: +36,890 contracts (1,005,549 total)
- CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures net short: -92,311 contracts (2,064,931 total)
- CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short: -103,833 contracts (774,020 total)
- CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short: +113,628 contracts (1,348,036 total)
- CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures net short: +5,299 contracts (280,487 total)
- CBOT US Treasury bonds futures net long: -1,351 contracts (5,074 total)
- Bitcoin net long position: 1,172 contracts
- Swiss franc net short: -41,186 contracts
- British pound net short: -57,072 contracts
- Euro net long: 156,856 contracts
- Japanese yen net long: 11,539 contracts
Technical & Trade Views
SP500
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 6960 Target 7040
Below 6850 Target 6600
EURUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 1.1860 Target 1.1960
Below 1.1685 Target 1.1515
GBPUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 1.3635 Target 1.3760
Below 1.3400 Target 1.3150
USDJPY
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 156.30 Target 159.40
Below 155 Target 152
XAUUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 5150 Target 5325
Below 5200 Target 4900
BTCUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 78k Target 81.5k
Below 75k Target 53k
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72% and 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!