Daily Market Outlook, August 28, 2026

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group


Munnelly’s Macro Missive - Stocks Stutter While Waiting for Warsh

Global equity markets traded with a cautious mixed bias on Friday as investors refrained from taking aggressive directional positions ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s address at the Jackson Hole symposium. MSCI’s Asia Pacific gauge edged up 0.3%, though regional sentiment was split; South Korea’s Kospi slipped 1.3% as initial euphoria surrounding Nvidia’s guidance faded, further compounded by a post-earnings slump of over 7% in Marvell Technology. Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.2%, while European equity futures signalled a modestly firmer open.


Sovereign bond markets remained under pressure following Thursday’s selloff, which pushed yields higher across the curve on persistent US fiscal deficit concerns and sticky inflation metrics. Two-year Treasury yields held near 4.23%, while G10 rate expectations leaned hawkish following remarks from Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, who noted that current monetary policy is not actively restraining economic activity. Money markets continue to discount a final 25 bps Fed rate hike before year-end.


In Asia, the Japanese Yen hovered around 159.40 per Dollar after Tokyo CPI accelerated for a third consecutive month. Heightened speculation over potential Bank of Japan policy tightening was amplified by weak demand at a two-year Japanese government bond auction and impending Ministry of Finance intervention data. Elsewhere, Gold drifted lower toward $4,580/oz, Bitcoin fell back below $80,000, and Brent crude dropped 0.5% to $89.30/bbl amid renewed friction in negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and reports surrounding Venezuela’s OPEC membership status.


In the UK, corporate sentiment delivered a notable positive surprise, with Lloyds Business Barometer confidence rising four points to 53% in August—its highest level since March. The improvement was broad-based across domestic (+10 pts to 44%) and international firms (+3 pts to 59%), driven by expanding demand in services (56%) and manufacturing (55%). Crucially, the share of UK businesses planning price increases dropped to 51% (the lowest since 2022), signaling that moderating input costs may offer margin insulation without fueling secondary inflation pressures.


Looking at the upcoming calendar, trading volume is expected to start sluggishly next week given the UK summer bank holiday on Monday. However, the macro agenda quickly builds momentum with preliminary August CPI figures out of Germany and the Eurozone, alongside final European PMIs. In the US, a heavy labor-market lineup takes center stage—including JOLTS, ADP, and Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report (consensus +60k with unemployment at 4.2%)—offering the next major benchmark for Fed policy expectations ahead of the September FOMC blackout period.


Macro to Micro: Financial markets are firmly in a holding pattern as macro desks await clarity on the Federal Reserve’s policy reaction function from Jackson Hole. While corporate earnings in tech have provided localized support, elevated short-end yields, persistent energy volatility, and upcoming labor market data leave broader risk assets vulnerable to macro repricing. For traders, the priority into the weekend centers on risk preservation ahead of Chair Warsh’s remarks and next week’s key US employment prints.

Overnight Headlines

  • Fed Officials Remain Divided On Inflation Ahead Of Warsh Speech

  • Fed’s Collins Says Interest Rates Are Still Mildly Restrictive

  • US Commander Declares Hormuz Shipping Lanes Mine-Free

  • Iran War Diplomacy Turns Toward Reopening Strait Of Hormuz

  • US Patriot Missile Stocks In Europe Are Beyond Critical Due To Iran War

  • Trump Says Putin Will Not Be Attacking NATO Territory

  • Japan’s Two-Year Govt Bond Auction Shows Weaker Demand

  • UK Business Confidence Highest Since Start Of Iran War

  • US In Talks With Venezuela To Take Major Stake In Oil Fields

  • Venezuela Weighs OPEC Exit After Decades As It Deepens US Ties

  • US Judge Orders Pentagon To Rescind Blacklisting Of Anthropic

  • Nvidia Pauses Revenue-Sharing Deals With AI Cloud Companies

  • SK Hynix CEO Says Chipmaker Is Weighing Closer Ties With Kioxia

  • Marvell Sees Accelerating Growth As AI Demand Boosts Q2 Rev

  • Gap Replaces Old Navy CEO After Bigger-Than-Expected Sales Drop

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)

  • EUR/USD: 1.1575 (€528m), 1.1600 (€812m), 1.1625 (€765m), 1.1650 (€767m), 1.1680 (€759m), 1.1725 (€840m)

  • USD/JPY: 158.20 ($1.1bn), 161.00 ($665m)

  • GBP/USD: 1.3700 (£832m)

  • USD/CHF: 0.8000 ($1.5bn)

CFTC Positions as of 21/7/26

  • Equity fund speculators increase S&P 500 CME net short position by 5,978 contracts to 267,509

  • Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 10,361 contracts to 952,422

  • Speculators increase CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures net short position by 33,349 contracts to 1,274,105

  • Speculators increase CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 31,908 contracts to 946,961

  • Speculators trim CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position by 93,706 contracts to 927,337

  • Speculators increase CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures net short position by 19,941 contracts to 346,724

  • Speculators increase CBOT US Treasury bonds futures net short position by 39,405 contracts to 219,012

  • Bitcoin net long position is 2,736 contracts

  • Swiss franc posts net short position of -27,278 contracts

  • British pound net short position is -54,573 contracts

  • Euro net short position is -59,088 contracts

  • Japanese yen net short position is -52,893 contracts


Technical & Trade Views


SP500 - 7620 weekly bull/bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 7620 Target 7870

  • Below 7580 Target 7490

DXY - 99 weekly bull/bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 99.20 Target 99.75

  • Below 99 Target 97.50

EURUSD - 1.16 weekly bull/bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 1.16 Target 1.18

  • Below 1.1550 Target 1.1475

GBPUSD - 1.3550 weekly  bull/bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 1.3550 Target 1.3690

  • Below 1.35 Target 1.3450

USDJPY - 160 weekly bull bear level 

  • Daily VWAP Bullish>Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish>Bullish

  • Above 155 Target 160

  • Below 155 Target 152

XAUUSD - 4500 weekly bull bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 4500 Target 4725

  • Below 4450 Target 4385

BTCUSD - 74k weekly bull bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 74k Target 83k

  • Below 73.8k Target 70.8k

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