Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks
Crude prices remain under pressure at the start of the week with the futures market firmly in red through early European trading on Monday. Renewed focus on Russia-Ukraine peace prosects have become a key driver for oil in recent days following news of Trump’s 28-point peace proposal, worked out with Moscow. With Zelensky agreeing to take part in negotiations, even with the prospect of territorial compromises, traders are hopeful that a peace deal can finally be agreed this time around. For crude, the prospect of peace means the return of Russian supply to the wider market as sanctions are lifted and Russia is allowed to rejoin the G7. While it is still early stages, any positive headlines around the peace process should exert further pressure on crude prices.
EIA Data on Watch
Looking ahead this week, traders will be watching the latest EIA data due on Wednesday which could reinforce crude selling if a fresh surplus in crude stores is seen. Demand concerns have been another driver behind the recent sell off in crude. With both the EIA and OPEC warning of oversupply supply risks through year end, any data that shows further evidence of this dynamic at play will be firmly bearish for crude prices near-term, particular if the Russia-Ukraine peace story starts to gain further traction simultaneously.
Technical Views
Crude
The market is once again testing support at the 57.57 level. With momentum studies bearish and trend line resistance holding overhead, focus is on a fresh break lower with 55.07 the next support to watch if we do breakdown. Topside, bulls need to get back above the 61.39 level to alleviate near-term risks.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.