Crude Traders Awaiting Details on Strait of Hormuz
Ceasefire Extension
Crude prices remain muted ahead of the weekend as traders monitor incoming news flow around the US/Iran peace process. It was reported overnight that the two sides have agreed to a 60-day extension of the ceasefire to allow for further negotiations. We haven’t seen the same heavily bearish reaction that we’ve seen to earlier announcements suggesting that traders are growing fatigued of the stalemate and are sceptical over whether this will lead to a deal given the failure to make any progress so far. Still, oil prices are ending the week lower, showing that there is optimism in the market and if we hear any positive headlines over the weekend this could see a bigger sell off next week.
Strait of Hormuz
The key issue now will be whether the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened during the ceasefire extension window. If the Strait is reopened this will help ease the current supply bottleneck which has kept oil prices anchored around the $90-$100 area in recent months. However, if the Strait is not reopened during the ceasefire extension window oil prices might struggle to move further unless there are any signs of progress in negotiations. Indeed, if tensions flare up again and we hear of any fresh attacks or news that negotiations are failing to progress, this could see oil prices pushing higher again.
Technical Views
Crude
The sell off in crude has stalled for now into a test of the triangle lows, with the 84.60-level support just below. While this zone holds, a fresh rotation higher is likely with 95.06 the first hurdle for bulls. If we do break lower, however, 77.65 is the next support to watch.
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